The Trader’s Journal
Straight to the Point
What’s Been Happening
Metric
Initial Claims
Continuing Claims
4-Wk Moving Avg
Actual
206,000
1,774,000
206,000
Forecasted
205,000
—
—
Prior
207,000
1,775,000
207,500
Data released September 10, 2026 (week ending September 5, 2026 for Initial Claims; week ending August 29, 2026 for Continuing Claims). Prior week’s Initial Claims revised from 206,000 to 207,000; Continuing Claims revised from 1,779,000 to 1,775,000.
Metric
Headline PCE (MoM)
Headline PCE (YoY)
Core PCE (MoM)
Core PCE (YoY)
Actual
+0.2%
+3.7%
+0.2%
+3.3%
Forecast
+0.1%
+3.6%
+0.2%
+3.3%
Prior
-0.1%
+3.7%
+0.1%
+3.3%
Data released August 26, 2026 (July 2026 data).
Metric
Headline PPI (MoM)
Headline PPI (YoY)
Core PPI (MoM)
Core PPI (YoY)
Actual
+0.4%
+5.4%
+0.2%
+4.6%
Forecast
+0.4%
+5.3%
+0.3%
+4.6%
Prior
+0.1%
+4.8%
+0.3%
+4.2%
Data released September 10, 2026 (August 2026 data). Headline PPI MoM prior month revised up to +0.1%; Core PPI MoM prior month revised up to +0.3%.
Metric
Headline CPI (MoM)
Headline CPI (YoY)
Core CPI (MoM)
Core CPI (YoY)
Actual
+0.4%
+3.4%
+0.3%
+2.4%
Forecast
+0.4%
+3.4%
+0.2%
+2.4%
Prior
+0.1%
+3.4%
+0.2%
+2.5%
Data released September 11, 2026 (August 2026 data).
Metric
Unemployment Rate
Actual
4.1%
Forecasted
4.1%
Prior
4.1%
Data released September 4, 2026 (August 2026 jobs report).
What This Means
All of this week’s even was read to the Fed as improving labor market and worsening inflation, increasing odds of a rate cut next week to over 70%
Market Reaction
Markets sold off as the jobless claims and PPI reports contributed to a likelier rate hike for next week, now sitting at over 70% according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Trading Pattern (updated weekly)
BITCOIN
Rejected at the weekly 50SMA, lower low is spotted
GOLD
Currently breaching below the weekly 21SMA
S&P500
First lower low on the weekly is spotted, could be starting a downtrend
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Everything in this section reflects my own personal opinions and analysis, not professional investment recommendations. Trade at your own risk.
Upcoming Market Shakers
Report
Jobless Claims
Jobs Report
Jobless Claims
CPI
PPI
Jobless Claims
Jobless Claims
FOMC Meeting
Jobless Claims
PCE Price Index
Date
Oct 1
Oct 2
Oct 8
Oct 14
Oct 15
Oct 15
Oct 22
Oct 27-28
Oct 29
Oct 29
Time (ET)
8:30 AM ET
8:30 AM ET
8:30 AM ET
8:30 AM ET
8:30 AM ET
8:30 AM ET
8:30 AM ET
2:00 PM ET
8:30 AM ET
8:30 AM ET